KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

18%

17%

15%

15%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	39.5%	23.6%	39.8%	32.4%	17.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	39.5%	23.6%	39.8%	32.4%	17.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	39.5%	23.6%	39.8%	32.4%	17.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	39.5%	23.6%	39.8%	32.4%	17.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	39.5%	23.6%	39.8%	32.4%	17.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	34.4%	12.9%	28.4%	26.2%	62.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	34.4%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	62.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	34.4%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	62.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	34.4%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	62.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	30.8%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	30.8%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	30.8%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	30.8%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	30.8%	12.9%	29.8%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	30.8%	6.1%	24.7%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	30.8%	6.1%	24.7%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	30.8%	6.1%	24.7%	26.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	32.1%	6.1%	24.7%	28.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	24.7%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	24.7%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	24.7%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	24.7%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	32.2%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	70.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	67.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	67.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	67.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	26.0%	28.8%	67.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	26.0%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	30.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	25.3%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	24.7%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	24.7%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	34.9%	6.1%	24.7%	23.4%	67.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	32.9%	6.1%	24.7%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	32.9%	6.1%	24.7%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	32.9%	6.1%	24.7%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	32.9%	6.1%	24.7%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	32.9%	6.1%	24.7%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	32.9%	14.5%	18.4%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	32.9%	14.5%	18.4%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	32.9%	14.5%	18.4%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	27.9%	14.5%	18.4%	24.4%	60.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	27.9%	14.5%	18.4%	24.5%	60.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	18.0%	6.7%	13.5%	12.2%	22.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	18.0%	6.7%	13.5%	12.2%	22.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	18.0%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	22.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	18.0%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	22.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	18.0%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	22.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	18.6%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	16.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	18.6%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	16.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	18.6%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	16.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	18.6%	6.7%	14.9%	12.2%	16.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.1%	17.7%	16.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.1%	17.7%	16.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.1%	17.7%	16.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.1%	17.7%	16.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.0%	17.7%	17.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	18.6%	14.9%	15.0%	17.7%	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	81.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗