KMSY / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

18%

17%

15%

13%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.8¢Risks 3.95u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 21.05u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.05u · EPS −21.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	61.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	39.7%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	1.0%	20.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	40.3%	21.9%	0.8%	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	51.5%	15.6%	14.8%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	46.2%	20.5%	16.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	41.3%	14.9%	16.9%	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	13.9%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	34.5%	14.8%	14.3%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	20.8%	16.2%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	36.3%	12.7%	14.6%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	35.9%	11.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	27.4%	12.4%	9.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	29.2%	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	20.3%	8.2%	14.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	26.5%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	17.0%	7.8%	10.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	16.3%	7.2%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	19.0%	5.3%	13.7%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	7.1%	0.0%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	79.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	82.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗