KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

45%

43%

37%

36%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

EPSNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.70u · EPS −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.7%	23.2%	35.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.8%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.8%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.8%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.8%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	35.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	23.3%	72.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	37.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	42.4%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	45.2%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	45.2%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	45.2%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	45.2%	36.3%	43.0%	37.3%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	88.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	81.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	81.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	80.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	81.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗