KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

45%

43%

37%

36%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

EPSNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.70u · EPS −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	37.9%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	7.7%	35.5%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	59.1%	27.5%	1.6%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	52.9%	33.0%	29.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	29.6%	24.5%	25.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	25.9%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	24.8%	25.5%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	33.0%	28.6%	23.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	26.0%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	37.1%	22.8%	19.6%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	32.6%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	33.0%	26.6%	20.9%	—	11.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	35.2%	27.6%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	32.1%	27.9%	21.0%	14.7%	14.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	34.4%	—	—	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	88.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	81.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	81.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	80.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	81.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗