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KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
WN2
71%
ICON
66%
AIFS
60%
HRES
35%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u
VS
HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:0055.6%93.7%60.6%35.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0055.6%93.7%60.6%35.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0055.6%93.7%70.4%35.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:0055.6%93.7%70.4%35.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0055.6%93.7%70.4%35.2%68.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0060.3%93.7%70.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0060.3%93.7%70.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0060.3%93.7%70.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0060.3%93.7%70.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0060.3%95.4%71.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0060.3%95.4%71.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0060.3%95.4%71.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0060.3%95.4%71.4%35.2%65.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0060.4%95.4%71.4%35.2%66.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble95%80.7°F1.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend85%81.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 271%79.6°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON66%79.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single60%78.7°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%78.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES35%75.6°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗