KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

71%

66%

60%

35%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	69.9%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	9.3%	79.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	63.8%	65.7%	7.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	72.8%	65.0%	60.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	51.5%	50.8%	43.2%	—	27.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	40.5%	39.7%	54.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	51.7%	51.7%	45.8%	—	29.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	47.4%	46.6%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	52.6%	50.9%	41.3%	38.8%	24.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	49.1%	—	—	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	80.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	79.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	78.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗