KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

29%

25%

22%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.05u

EPSNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.95u · EPS −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	21.2%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	21.2%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	21.2%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	21.2%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	23.3%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	23.3%	29.3%	29.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	23.3%	18.9%	29.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	23.3%	18.9%	29.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	23.3%	18.9%	27.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	23.3%	18.9%	27.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	23.3%	18.9%	27.9%	9.4%	16.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	27.9%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	27.9%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	27.9%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	27.9%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	27.9%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	15.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	21.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	21.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	21.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	21.7%	18.9%	29.2%	24.8%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	79.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	76.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	76.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	78.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗