KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

29%

25%

22%

19%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.05u

EPSNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.95u · EPS −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	41.6%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	38.0%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	17.5%	28.1%	1.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	18.9%	20.4%	11.7%	—	10.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	14.6%	18.4%	14.2%	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	26.8%	26.8%	17.4%	18.4%	6.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	30.4%	—	—	6.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	47%	79.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	76.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	76.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	78.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗