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KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
68%
AIFS
59%
WN2
56%
EPS
38%
HRES
38%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u
VS
HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 37.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 37.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 37.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 37.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00ICON: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:0048.6%42.4%51.6%37.2%64.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0048.6%42.4%51.6%37.2%64.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0048.6%42.4%57.0%37.2%64.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:0048.6%42.4%57.0%37.2%64.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0048.6%42.4%57.0%37.2%64.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0058.8%42.4%57.0%37.2%67.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0058.8%42.4%57.0%37.2%67.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0058.8%42.4%57.0%37.2%67.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0058.8%42.4%57.0%37.2%67.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0058.8%37.6%56.0%37.5%67.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0058.8%37.6%56.0%37.5%67.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0058.8%37.6%56.0%37.5%67.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0058.8%37.6%56.0%37.5%67.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend71%80.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON68%80.8°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single59%78.7°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 256%78.2°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%78.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%76.7°F2.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%75.4°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗