KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

56%

38%

38%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	51.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	6.8%	46.0%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	43.7%	47.2%	6.9%	—	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	47.8%	63.6%	45.6%	45.6%	28.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	70.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	71%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	68%	80.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	78.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	76.7°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗