KOKC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

77%

72%

53%

17%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

EPSNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.50u · EPS −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	80.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	40.7%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	73.1%	94.6%	61.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	94.9%	17.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	59.1%	83.5%	38.0%	—	46.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	55.6%	63.3%	77.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	33.0%	70.7%	81.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	75.4%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	67.0%	43.0%	88.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	50.0%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	64.4%	53.7%	88.1%	—	76.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	59.4%	52.8%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	82.9%	64.3%	90.2%	—	84.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	80.3%	56.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	83.0%	63.1%	95.3%	—	90.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	85.0%	69.3%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	84.5%	71.8%	96.7%	100.0%	88.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	81.7%	73.3%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	78.5%	77.6%	96.9%	—	88.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	90.8%	81.7%	98.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	93.7%	79.2%	97.5%	96.0%	90.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	94.4%	81.8%	96.8%	—	91.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	95.4%	77.0%	98.1%	95.7%	93.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	93.8%	77.9%	99.0%	—	92.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	88.5%	73.2%	98.1%	94.5%	93.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	86.4%	76.4%	97.8%	—	96.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	89.8%	80.8%	98.5%	91.1%	96.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	75.9%	84.0%	97.2%	—	89.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	55.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0014
NWS forecast	88%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0137
IFS HRES	77%	58.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0548
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	72%	59.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0784
AIFS Single	53%	61.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2209
IFS Ensemble	17%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6939

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261017-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗