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KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
37%
AIFS
13%
WN2
12%
HRES
10%
ICON
6%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.60u
VS
ICONNO 78.4¢Risks 78.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.40u · ICON −78.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 20.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:0017.6%68.7%16.6%20.8%36.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:0020.4%68.7%16.6%20.8%6.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0020.4%68.7%16.6%20.8%6.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:0020.4%68.7%16.6%20.8%6.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0020.4%68.7%16.6%20.8%6.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:0020.4%68.7%16.6%10.0%6.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:0020.4%36.9%12.4%10.0%6.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:0020.4%36.9%12.4%10.0%6.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0020.4%36.9%12.4%10.0%6.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:0012.9%36.9%12.4%10.0%6.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0012.9%36.9%12.4%10.0%6.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast55%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 02:000.2970
IFS Ensemble37%69.5°F3.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.1362
National Blend26%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 06:000.0686
AIFS Single13%65.3°F4.6°F2026-10-14 06:000.0166
WeatherNext 212%66.2°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:000.0154
IFS HRES10%64.1°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0100
ICON6%63.1°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0040

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗