KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

13%

12%

10%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

ICONNO 78.4¢Risks 78.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.40u · ICON −78.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	1.4%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	19.4%	5.1%	0.2%	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	33.0%	33.0%	17.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	17.4%	38.7%	19.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	23.0%	2.3%	7.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	16.8%	1.0%	10.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.3%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.3%	16.7%	5.7%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.9%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	3.6%	14.4%	2.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.0%	12.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.3%	9.8%	2.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	1.9%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.4%	6.1%	1.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.0%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	4.5%	0.5%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	4.0%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	4.0%	1.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.3%	4.0%	0.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	3.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	2.2%	0.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	1.1%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.5%	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	0.9%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.5%	0.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	37%	69.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1362
National Blend	26%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0686
AIFS Single	13%	65.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0166
WeatherNext 2	12%	66.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0154
IFS HRES	10%	64.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0100
ICON	6%	63.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0040

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗