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KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
90%
EPS
83%
HRES
74%
ICON
55%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 73.00u
VS
ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 27.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.00u · ICON −27.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 43.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:0089.5%80.9%79.9%58.7%43.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0089.5%80.9%92.2%58.7%43.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0089.5%80.9%92.2%58.7%43.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0089.5%80.9%92.2%58.7%43.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0089.5%80.9%92.2%58.7%43.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:0093.0%80.9%92.2%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0093.0%80.9%92.2%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0093.0%80.9%92.2%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0093.0%80.9%92.2%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:0093.0%83.3%91.5%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:0093.0%83.3%91.5%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:0093.0%83.3%91.5%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0093.0%83.3%91.5%74.1%54.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0089.8%82.8%91.5%74.1%54.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%71.5°F2.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single90%72.5°F3.9°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%71.1°F3.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend75%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES74%69.9°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%68.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON55%67.9°F3.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗