KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

83%

74%

55%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 73.00u

ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 27.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.00u · ICON −27.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	85.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	30.1%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	3.6%	82.9%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	97.4%	89.5%	2.7%	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	94.3%	96.5%	72.8%	—	80.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	90.0%	56.8%	59.8%	—	77.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	55.6%	67.0%	46.0%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	50.0%	81.0%	35.3%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	19.6%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	45.6%	77.9%	37.9%	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	51.8%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	60.0%	72.6%	45.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	44.3%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	42.3%	60.6%	42.3%	—	46.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	38.2%	58.9%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	40.8%	63.1%	46.9%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	41.6%	63.5%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	51.1%	67.9%	59.7%	0.0%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	47.8%	62.2%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	46.5%	60.4%	57.0%	44.2%	39.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	58.4%	60.7%	61.9%	—	42.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	70.2%	57.4%	62.3%	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	60.2%	63.9%	59.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	44.6%	69.3%	55.4%	31.9%	46.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	54.2%	52.8%	68.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	75.5%	61.4%	69.5%	72.0%	74.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	67.5%	66.2%	74.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	78.6%	76.2%	77.4%	78.6%	73.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	94.2%	85.9%	84.0%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0072
AIFS Single	90%	72.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	83%	71.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0296
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0620
IFS HRES	74%	69.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0671
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1901
ICON	55%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗