KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

72%

55%

22%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.05u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 43.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.95u · ICON −43.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:08+00:00	84.2%	85.0%	76.2%	58.9%	38.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	84.2%	85.0%	75.3%	58.9%	38.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	84.2%	85.0%	75.3%	58.9%	38.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	84.2%	85.0%	75.3%	58.9%	38.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	84.3%	85.0%	75.3%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	84.3%	85.0%	75.3%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	84.3%	85.0%	75.3%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	84.3%	85.0%	75.3%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	84.3%	85.0%	75.3%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	77.1%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	77.1%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	77.1%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	83.7%	85.3%	77.1%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	83.8%	84.8%	77.1%	55.8%	36.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	84.5%	75.3%	84.9%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	84.5%	71.7%	84.9%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	84.5%	71.7%	84.9%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	84.5%	71.7%	80.5%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	84.5%	71.7%	80.5%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	84.5%	71.7%	80.5%	64.7%	43.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	80.5%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	80.5%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	80.5%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	80.5%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	80.5%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	87.3%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	89.8%	71.7%	82.3%	55.4%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	71.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	70.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗