KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

72%

55%

22%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.0¢Risks 56.05u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 43.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.95u · ICON −43.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	24.6%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	2.5%	78.2%	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	96.1%	85.9%	1.8%	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	91.8%	94.9%	66.3%	—	75.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	86.2%	49.2%	52.3%	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	47.6%	59.5%	38.2%	—	42.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	41.7%	74.9%	27.9%	—	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	14.2%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	37.1%	70.9%	29.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	42.9%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	50.9%	64.4%	36.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	35.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	33.0%	51.0%	33.0%	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	29.1%	49.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	31.2%	53.1%	36.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	31.6%	53.2%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	40.3%	57.6%	48.9%	0.0%	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	36.7%	51.1%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	35.2%	48.8%	45.4%	33.1%	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	46.4%	48.8%	50.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	58.7%	45.0%	50.0%	—	45.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	47.4%	51.3%	46.1%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	31.9%	56.7%	42.0%	21.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	40.3%	39.0%	55.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	62.8%	47.1%	55.8%	58.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	71.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	70.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗