KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

52%

34%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

ICONNO 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.50u · ICON −56.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:40+00:00	66.1%	80.8%	52.1%	46.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	66.1%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	66.1%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	66.1%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	48.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	65.4%	80.8%	56.4%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	65.4%	76.5%	46.5%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	65.4%	76.5%	46.5%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	65.4%	76.5%	46.5%	46.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	64.6%	76.5%	46.5%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	64.6%	76.4%	46.5%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	46.5%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	46.5%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	46.5%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	47.6%	38.6%	21.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	47.6%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	68.8%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	70.4%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	70.4%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	70.4%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	70.4%	65.8%	54.7%	41.1%	21.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	53.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	53.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	44.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	44.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	44.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	44.9%	36.6%	18.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	65.3%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	44.9%	30.4%	15.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	77.7%	52.1%	59.5%	34.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	77.7%	52.1%	75.4%	34.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	77.7%	52.1%	75.4%	34.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	77.7%	52.1%	75.4%	34.3%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	70.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗