KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

52%

34%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

ICONNO 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.50u · ICON −56.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	1.1%	67.0%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	92.1%	76.5%	0.7%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	84.8%	89.7%	52.2%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	76.1%	34.4%	37.2%	—	57.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	32.3%	43.6%	24.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	26.5%	59.9%	15.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	6.7%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	22.1%	54.4%	16.7%	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	26.4%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.0%	46.3%	20.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	19.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	17.7%	32.1%	17.7%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	14.6%	29.9%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	15.7%	33.0%	19.7%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	15.6%	32.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	21.3%	36.1%	28.2%	0.0%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	18.3%	29.6%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	16.8%	27.0%	24.2%	15.3%	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	24.4%	26.3%	27.3%	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	34.2%	22.7%	26.6%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	23.8%	26.9%	22.8%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	12.7%	30.7%	19.1%	7.0%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	17.3%	16.4%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	34.5%	21.2%	28.0%	30.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	70.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗