KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

49%

32%

31%

31%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.10u · HRES −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	29.5%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	29.5%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	26.8%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	26.8%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	26.8%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	54.3%	58.9%	26.8%	33.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	26.8%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	26.8%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	26.8%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	26.8%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	47.4%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	49.1%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	49.1%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	49.1%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	49.1%	58.9%	31.4%	30.9%	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	73.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗