KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

49%

32%

31%

31%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.10u · HRES −55.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	9.0%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	0.4%	54.0%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	85.5%	64.4%	0.2%	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	74.6%	81.6%	37.8%	—	47.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	62.7%	21.6%	23.9%	—	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	19.5%	28.8%	13.6%	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	14.8%	43.4%	7.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	2.7%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	11.3%	37.1%	8.0%	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	14.0%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	18.4%	28.9%	10.2%	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	7.9%	17.1%	7.9%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	6.0%	15.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	6.4%	17.0%	8.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	6.2%	16.3%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	9.0%	18.3%	13.1%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.1%	13.5%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	6.1%	11.6%	10.0%	5.4%	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	9.7%	10.8%	11.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	15.1%	8.5%	10.6%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	8.7%	10.3%	8.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	12.0%	6.1%	1.6%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	5.0%	4.7%	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	13.0%	6.3%	9.5%	10.8%	12.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	7.5%	7.0%	10.5%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	11.7%	10.2%	11.0%	11.7%	8.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	30.9%	16.0%	14.1%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	73.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.3469
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2959
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.2411
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.2079
ICON	32%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1056
WeatherNext 2	31%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0986
IFS HRES	31%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0955

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗