KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

20%

11%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.8¢Risks 6.90u

WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 43.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.10u · WN2 −43.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00	59.2%	44.7%	32.6%	77.6%	6.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	59.2%	44.7%	32.6%	77.6%	6.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	59.2%	44.7%	32.6%	77.6%	6.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	59.2%	44.7%	32.6%	77.6%	6.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	59.2%	44.7%	32.6%	77.6%	6.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	22.0%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	57.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	19.8%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	16.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	19.8%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	16.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	19.8%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	16.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	19.8%	34.4%	26.4%	36.9%	16.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00	19.8%	34.4%	26.4%	11.3%	16.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	19.8%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	19.8%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	19.8%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	17.6%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	6.9%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	5.7%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	5.7%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	17.7%	20.7%	5.7%	11.3%	16.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	5.7%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	5.7%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	5.7%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	5.7%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	5.7%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	16.2%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:24+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	6.9%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	9.0%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	9.0%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	16.7%	20.7%	9.0%	9.4%	14.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	9.0%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	9.0%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	9.0%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	9.0%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	5.3%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	14.8%	20.7%	5.3%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	14.8%	20.1%	5.3%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	14.8%	20.1%	5.3%	11.1%	5.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	22.3%	20.1%	5.3%	11.1%	5.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	22.3%	20.1%	5.3%	11.1%	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	73.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗