KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

20%

11%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.8¢Risks 6.90u

WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 43.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.10u · WN2 −43.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	2.3%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.0%	28.2%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	63.8%	36.9%	0.0%	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	47.1%	56.6%	14.8%	—	21.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	33.0%	6.0%	7.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	4.9%	8.7%	2.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.0%	15.7%	1.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.3%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.8%	11.3%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	2.4%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.4%	7.0%	1.4%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.1%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.8%	2.7%	0.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.5%	2.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.5%	2.4%	0.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.5%	2.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.7%	2.3%	1.3%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.3%	0.9%	0.7%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.1%	0.4%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.4%	0.3%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
AIFS Single	22%	73.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0497
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0404
National Blend	16%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0253
IFS HRES	11%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0123
ICON	5%	68.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0029
WeatherNext 2	5%	70.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0028

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗