KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

46%

45%

32%

12%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.45u

WN2NO 58.6¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.55u · WN2 −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	52.1%	38.8%	29.3%	72.6%	5.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	52.1%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	52.1%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	38.7%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	29.3%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	24.1%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	24.1%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	24.1%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	38.8%	45.3%	24.1%	72.6%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	24.1%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	24.1%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	24.1%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	24.1%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	11.0%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	31.5%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	31.5%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	31.5%	45.3%	11.8%	45.6%	71.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	83.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	74.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	71.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗