KOKC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

46%

45%

32%

12%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.4¢Risks 41.45u

WN2NO 58.6¢Risks 58.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.55u · WN2 −58.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.8%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	57.0%	30.5%	0.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	39.9%	49.3%	10.9%	—	16.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	26.4%	4.1%	4.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	3.1%	5.9%	1.8%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	11.2%	0.7%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.1%	7.7%	0.6%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.4%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	4.3%	0.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.6%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.4%	1.5%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	1.2%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	1.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.3%	1.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	83.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	76.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	74.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	71.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗