KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

32%

31%

16%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

ICONNO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.15u · ICON −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:24+00:00	39.8%	32.3%	26.7%	27.7%	39.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	39.8%	32.3%	26.7%	27.7%	39.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	39.8%	32.3%	34.2%	27.7%	39.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	39.8%	32.3%	34.2%	27.7%	39.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	39.8%	32.3%	34.2%	27.7%	39.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	34.2%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	34.2%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	34.2%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	34.2%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	22.5%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	39.7%	32.3%	22.5%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	39.7%	58.7%	22.5%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	39.7%	58.7%	22.5%	36.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	53.2%	58.7%	22.5%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	53.2%	58.7%	22.5%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	22.5%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	22.5%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	26.3%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	26.3%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	26.3%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	53.2%	51.2%	26.3%	36.5%	30.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	26.3%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	26.3%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	26.3%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	26.3%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	46.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:43+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	34.9%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	50.8%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	39.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	46.5%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	46.5%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	46.5%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	46.5%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	46.5%	51.2%	37.6%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	46.5%	42.1%	27.7%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	46.5%	42.1%	27.7%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	46.5%	42.1%	27.7%	33.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	45.7%	42.1%	27.7%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	45.7%	42.1%	27.7%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	27.7%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	27.7%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	27.7%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	45.7%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	15.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	15.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	15.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	26.8%	20.0%	15.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	26.8%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	49.1%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	32.4%	15.9%	15.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	76.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	75.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗