KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

32%

31%

16%

16%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

ICONNO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.15u · ICON −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	65.9%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.3%	48.0%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	61.1%	37.6%	0.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	13.6%	36.4%	9.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	15.1%	49.2%	16.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	12.3%	40.5%	5.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	18.4%	18.4%	9.0%	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	2.1%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.0%	17.2%	7.7%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	6.6%	13.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	6.3%	14.9%	12.9%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	5.3%	11.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	15.9%	9.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	5.4%	10.5%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	5.2%	9.8%	8.2%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	6.5%	9.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	8.5%	6.6%	8.1%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	4.8%	7.1%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	3.8%	8.1%	3.8%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	3.5%	5.8%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	9.5%	4.3%	3.5%	8.0%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.0%	3.7%	4.9%	—	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	4.6%	7.0%	1.6%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.2%	1.4%	6.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	11.5%	3.5%	10.2%	13.8%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	3.4%	5.1%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	76.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	75.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗