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KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
48%
EPS
44%
WN2
8%
ICON
5%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 25.1¢Risks 25.10u
VS
AIFSNO 74.9¢Risks 74.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.90u · AIFS −74.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:002.1%44.1%8.3%48.1%5.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:002.1%44.1%8.3%48.1%5.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:002.1%44.1%8.3%48.1%5.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:002.1%44.1%8.3%48.1%5.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%81.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES48%80.2°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%79.7°F5.4°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%73.1°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
ICON5%64.6°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%69.1°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗