KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.5¢Risks 5.23u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.77u · EPS −44.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	1.4%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	1.4%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	1.4%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	1.4%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	3.1%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	7.7%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	4.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	54.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	54.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	54.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	5.9%	41.9%	54.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	5.9%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	4.2%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	13.5%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	54.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	20.9%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	20.9%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	20.9%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	20.9%	21.3%	7.7%	35.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:50+00:00	20.9%	21.3%	7.7%	10.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.1%	10.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.1%	10.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	20.9%	4.1%	4.1%	10.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	14.1%	4.1%	4.1%	10.8%	14.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	14.9%	4.2%	4.3%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	4.3%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	4.3%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	4.3%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	6.1%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	6.1%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	14.9%	4.1%	6.1%	10.9%	14.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	6.1%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	6.1%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	6.1%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	6.1%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	6.1%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	12.1%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	11.8%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	11.8%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	11.8%	4.1%	4.5%	8.8%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	17%	74.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	75.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	72.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	73.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗