KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.5¢Risks 5.23u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.77u · EPS −44.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	7.3%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	18.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	27.5%	11.5%	0.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	2.2%	10.3%	1.3%	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.3%	16.4%	2.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.5%	10.8%	0.5%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.6%	2.6%	0.9%	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.1%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.7%	2.1%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.4%	1.2%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.4%	1.4%	1.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.2%	0.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	1.3%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	0.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	17%	74.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	75.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	72.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	73.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗