KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

43%

28%

21%

18%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.8¢Risks 33.75u

HRESNO 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.25u · HRES −66.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	36.6%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	36.6%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	39.9%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	39.9%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	39.9%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	62.4%	25.7%	39.9%	40.4%	28.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	39.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	39.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	39.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	39.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	53.0%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	57.4%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	57.4%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	57.4%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	57.4%	25.7%	50.9%	43.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00	52.4%	29.8%	61.5%	21.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	52.4%	29.8%	59.6%	21.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	52.4%	29.8%	59.6%	21.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	52.4%	29.8%	59.6%	21.3%	29.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	53.5%	29.8%	59.6%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	53.5%	29.8%	59.6%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	53.5%	29.8%	59.6%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	53.5%	29.8%	59.6%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	53.5%	29.8%	59.6%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	53.5%	32.0%	55.3%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	53.5%	32.0%	55.3%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	53.5%	32.0%	55.3%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	50.9%	32.0%	55.3%	25.5%	29.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	50.9%	32.0%	55.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	55.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	55.3%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	48.9%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	48.9%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	48.9%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	48.9%	25.5%	29.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	48.9%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	48.9%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	48.9%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	48.9%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	49.1%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	49.1%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	49.1%	20.7%	42.6%	18.4%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	79.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	76.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	76.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	75.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗