KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

43%

28%

21%

18%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.8¢Risks 33.75u

HRESNO 66.2¢Risks 66.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.25u · HRES −66.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	23.1%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.3%	24.9%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	18.0%	17.1%	0.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	7.9%	35.0%	7.1%	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	20.0%	22.8%	11.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	14.9%	23.6%	16.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	10.8%	16.2%	16.8%	—	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	3.1%	20.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	17.2%	22.1%	18.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	16.6%	19.6%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	14.4%	14.4%	12.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	18.4%	12.7%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	13.6%	12.1%	20.3%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	11.0%	16.4%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	7.1%	15.1%	17.6%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	19.8%	12.5%	11.9%	—	15.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	11.8%	13.5%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	15.3%	12.7%	12.1%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	24.4%	11.4%	9.7%	—	11.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	25.6%	11.8%	12.4%	15.1%	21.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	12.8%	12.2%	—	10.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	79.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	76.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	76.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	75.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗