KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

79%

74%

59%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

ICONNO 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.20u · ICON −25.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	88.3%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	88.3%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	88.3%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	79.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	79.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	76.7%	70.5%	79.8%	64.0%	59.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	79.8%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	79.8%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	79.8%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	79.8%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	79.8%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	75.9%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	82.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	80.7%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	83.3%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	83.3%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	83.3%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	83.3%	70.5%	92.3%	51.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	83.3%	79.4%	90.7%	74.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	83.3%	79.4%	90.7%	74.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	83.3%	79.4%	90.7%	74.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	83.3%	79.4%	90.7%	74.5%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	81.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	81.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	78.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗