KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

79%

74%

60%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.4¢Risks 75.40u

ICONNO 24.6¢Risks 24.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.60u · ICON −24.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	5.2%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	69.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	0.0%	48.6%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	54.9%	52.1%	0.1%	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	62.3%	75.7%	35.0%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	45.4%	40.2%	42.4%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	48.4%	67.7%	45.2%	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	74.4%	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	50.8%	49.2%	39.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	33.4%	54.3%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	45.6%	57.0%	41.3%	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	37.6%	73.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.2%	57.3%	42.7%	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	44.3%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	52.9%	51.0%	32.1%	—	54.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	47.0%	55.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	42.8%	51.0%	32.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	60.5%	55.3%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	61.8%	57.6%	34.1%	53.3%	69.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	57.8%	0.0%	—	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	81.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	81.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗