KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

60%

50%

46%

40%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	64.0%	63.0%	1.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	74.5%	51.0%	64.0%	63.0%	1.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	74.5%	63.1%	64.0%	63.0%	1.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	74.5%	63.1%	64.0%	63.0%	1.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	68.8%	63.1%	63.8%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	68.8%	63.1%	63.8%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	63.8%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	63.8%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	70.2%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	70.2%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	70.2%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	68.8%	56.4%	70.2%	62.8%	1.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	65.7%	56.4%	70.2%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	65.7%	56.4%	70.2%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	65.7%	56.4%	70.2%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	65.7%	56.4%	70.2%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	65.7%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	65.6%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	65.6%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	77.4%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	77.4%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	77.4%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	77.4%	56.4%	75.5%	70.2%	63.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:24+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	77.5%	36.5%	55.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	81.6%	36.5%	55.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	81.6%	36.5%	55.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	81.6%	36.5%	55.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	70.7%	44.3%	81.6%	36.5%	55.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	67.6%	44.3%	81.6%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	67.6%	44.3%	81.6%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	67.6%	44.3%	81.6%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	67.6%	44.3%	81.6%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	67.6%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	67.6%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	67.6%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	67.6%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	66.1%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	66.1%	45.6%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	66.1%	43.4%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	66.1%	43.4%	77.4%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	66.1%	43.4%	72.2%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	66.1%	43.4%	72.2%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	66.1%	43.4%	72.2%	33.7%	43.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	72.2%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	72.2%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	72.2%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	72.2%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	72.2%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	63.6%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	65.6%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	77.4%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	77.4%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	65.3%	43.4%	77.4%	31.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	68.9%	43.4%	77.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	68.9%	43.4%	77.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	68.9%	43.4%	77.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	68.9%	43.4%	77.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	68.9%	43.4%	77.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	72.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	72.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	68.9%	50.0%	72.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	72.4%	46.4%	40.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	72.4%	46.4%	40.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	81.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	80.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	79.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗