KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

60%

50%

46%

40%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.0%	35.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	40.9%	38.2%	0.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	47.8%	62.9%	22.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	30.9%	26.4%	28.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	33.0%	52.4%	30.1%	—	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	59.7%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	34.5%	33.0%	24.5%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	19.6%	37.4%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	29.1%	39.6%	25.5%	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	22.2%	57.1%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	17.8%	39.1%	25.9%	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	26.9%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	33.9%	32.1%	17.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	28.2%	35.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	24.3%	31.2%	16.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	39.5%	34.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	40.3%	36.1%	16.9%	32.1%	48.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	—	35.7%	0.0%	—	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	81.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	80.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	79.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗