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KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
68%
HRES
57%
WN2
53%
EPS
41%
ICON
1%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u
VS
ICONNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.15u · ICON −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:0068.5%41.3%53.0%56.9%1.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0068.5%41.3%53.0%56.9%1.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0068.5%41.3%53.0%56.9%1.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:0068.5%41.3%53.0%56.9%1.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single68%83.2°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%81.6°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend54%81.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%80.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble41%79.6°F4.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON1%58.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗