KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

57%

53%

41%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

ICONNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.15u · ICON −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	51.3%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.0%	29.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	34.3%	31.7%	0.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.6%	55.8%	17.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	24.5%	20.5%	22.2%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	26.1%	44.4%	23.6%	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	27.2%	25.8%	18.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	14.2%	29.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	22.1%	31.4%	19.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	16.1%	48.2%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	12.4%	30.6%	19.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	19.6%	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	25.5%	24.0%	11.6%	—	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	20.4%	26.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	17.0%	22.7%	10.8%	—	17.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	29.8%	25.3%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	30.1%	26.4%	10.9%	23.0%	38.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	25.8%	0.0%	—	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	83.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	81.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	81.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	80.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	79.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	58.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗