KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

81%

77%

59%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.6¢Risks 71.65u

ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.35u · ICON −28.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	5.3%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	3.0%	48.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	40.9%	43.0%	2.4%	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	37.1%	37.8%	44.9%	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	30.3%	41.7%	30.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	52.3%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	47.6%	48.4%	33.7%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	65.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	36.1%	41.7%	53.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	19.0%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	50.9%	40.5%	37.9%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	46.4%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	41.8%	46.3%	44.5%	—	48.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	52.8%	44.3%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	51.9%	52.9%	41.3%	33.9%	69.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	31.7%	—	—	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	81.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	81.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	80.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗