KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

55%

52%

48%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.5¢Risks 27.75u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 22.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:24+00:00	65.1%	41.9%	62.6%	34.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	65.1%	41.9%	71.8%	34.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	65.1%	41.9%	71.8%	34.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	65.1%	41.9%	71.8%	34.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	65.1%	41.9%	71.8%	34.7%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	64.9%	41.9%	71.8%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	64.9%	41.9%	71.8%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	64.9%	41.9%	71.8%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	64.9%	41.9%	71.8%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	64.9%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	64.2%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	64.2%	50.0%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	64.2%	46.4%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	64.2%	46.4%	65.1%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	64.2%	46.4%	62.4%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	64.2%	46.4%	62.4%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	64.2%	46.4%	62.4%	41.8%	52.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	62.4%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	62.4%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	62.4%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	62.4%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	62.4%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	59.6%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	54.8%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	65.1%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	65.1%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	62.7%	46.4%	65.1%	33.9%	43.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	66.8%	46.4%	65.1%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	66.8%	46.4%	65.1%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	66.8%	46.4%	65.1%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	66.8%	46.4%	65.1%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	66.8%	46.4%	65.1%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	62.6%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	62.6%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	66.8%	54.5%	62.6%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	57.8%	54.5%	62.6%	52.4%	48.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	57.8%	54.5%	62.6%	52.4%	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	80.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	79.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	79.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗