KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

55%

52%

48%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.5¢Risks 27.75u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 22.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.3%	34.8%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	28.1%	29.8%	1.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	24.3%	24.9%	31.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	18.4%	27.7%	18.4%	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	37.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	32.3%	33.0%	20.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	21.9%	26.5%	36.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	9.5%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	33.8%	24.8%	22.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	29.4%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	25.1%	28.9%	27.4%	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	34.3%	26.9%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.0%	33.9%	24.0%	18.3%	51.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	16.4%	—	—	34.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	80.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	79.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	79.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗