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KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
79%
EPS
75%
WN2
74%
HRES
51%
ICON
49%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.90u
VS
ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.10u · ICON −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:0073.5%74.8%79.6%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:0073.5%74.8%79.6%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0073.5%74.8%79.6%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:0073.5%74.8%75.2%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0073.5%74.8%75.2%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:0073.5%74.8%75.2%50.0%58.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0076.7%74.8%75.2%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:0076.7%74.8%75.2%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0076.7%74.8%75.2%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:0076.7%74.8%75.2%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:0076.7%74.8%75.2%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:0076.7%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:0076.7%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0076.7%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:0079.1%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0079.1%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0079.1%74.8%74.4%51.4%48.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single79%81.5°F4.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%79.7°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%80.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend68%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%78.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS HRES51%77.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON49%77.3°F6.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗