KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

75%

74%

51%

49%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.90u

ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.10u · ICON −36.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	37.8%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	0.4%	27.7%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	15.3%	40.9%	0.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	35.0%	55.1%	19.9%	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	30.9%	43.9%	47.7%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	39.0%	46.8%	29.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.2%	40.9%	36.9%	—	45.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	16.7%	46.6%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	41.3%	50.9%	33.0%	40.5%	60.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.1%	—	—	51.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	81.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	79.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	77.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗