KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

52%

45%

36%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

HRESNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.10u · HRES −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	59.5%	44.5%	56.0%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	59.5%	41.4%	56.0%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	59.5%	41.4%	56.0%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	59.5%	41.4%	53.4%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	59.5%	41.4%	53.4%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	59.5%	41.4%	53.4%	43.4%	47.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	53.4%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	53.4%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	53.4%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	53.4%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	53.4%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	57.3%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	56.0%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	61.8%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	61.8%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	58.1%	41.4%	61.8%	25.7%	45.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	64.2%	41.4%	61.8%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	64.2%	41.4%	61.8%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	64.2%	41.4%	61.8%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	64.2%	41.4%	61.8%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	64.2%	41.4%	61.8%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	64.2%	52.4%	63.3%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	64.2%	52.4%	63.3%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	64.2%	52.4%	63.3%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	58.8%	52.4%	63.3%	36.5%	45.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	58.8%	52.4%	63.3%	36.5%	45.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	80.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	79.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	78.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	77.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗