KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

59%

52%

45%

36%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

HRESNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.10u · HRES −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	0.1%	17.6%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	8.5%	28.1%	0.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	22.6%	40.6%	11.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	18.9%	29.6%	33.0%	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	24.8%	31.6%	17.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	15.2%	25.8%	22.5%	—	29.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	8.2%	30.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	25.5%	33.8%	19.0%	24.8%	43.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	31.8%	—	—	34.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	80.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	79.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	78.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	77.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗