KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

47%

41%

33%

25%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.75u

ICONNO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.25u · ICON −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	16.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.0%	10.2%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	4.2%	17.5%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	13.2%	27.2%	5.7%	—	16.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	10.3%	17.9%	20.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	14.0%	18.9%	9.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	7.4%	14.3%	12.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	3.4%	17.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	13.6%	19.6%	9.4%	13.1%	26.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	17.8%	—	—	19.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	53%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	81.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	80.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	77.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗