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KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
AIFS
5%
WN2
3%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.9¢Risks 1.23u
VS
EPSNO 95.1¢Risks 23.77u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.77u · EPS −23.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 10:0110-18 04:14
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:007.0%1.2%5.7%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:007.0%1.2%5.7%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:007.0%1.2%5.7%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:007.0%1.2%5.7%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:007.0%1.2%5.7%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:005.1%0.4%2.6%1.7%9.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON9%76.4°F9.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%80.1°F5.8°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend4%83.0°F3.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%79.6°F5.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES2%75.8°F6.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%78.5°F4.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Oklahoma City · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗