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KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
69%
WN2
69%
EPS
64%
HRES
50%
ICON
49%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.2¢Risks 29.62u
VS
ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 20.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.38u · ICON −20.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:0067.4%54.3%65.2%48.1%33.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0067.4%54.3%63.0%48.1%33.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0067.4%54.3%63.0%48.1%33.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0067.4%54.3%63.0%48.1%33.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:0068.5%54.3%63.0%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0068.5%54.3%63.0%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0068.5%54.3%63.0%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0068.5%54.3%63.0%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0068.5%54.3%63.0%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:0068.5%64.1%68.9%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0068.5%64.1%68.9%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0068.5%64.1%68.9%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0069.1%64.1%68.9%50.0%50.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:0069.1%64.1%68.9%50.0%49.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single69%80.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 269%79.8°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%78.8°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%78.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES50%77.5°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON49%77.4°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend47%77.0°F7.8°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗