KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

69%

64%

50%

49%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.2¢Risks 29.62u

ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 20.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.38u · ICON −20.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.2%	4.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	6.0%	28.6%	0.4%	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	24.9%	24.3%	21.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	34.4%	16.4%	39.4%	—	24.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	46.0%	31.6%	25.5%	31.6%	35.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	21.8%	—	—	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	79.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	78.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	77.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	77.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗