KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

58%

46%

42%

30%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

ICONNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.40u · ICON −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	61.0%	48.3%	54.7%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	54.7%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	54.7%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	58.5%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	58.5%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	58.5%	51.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	58.5%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	58.5%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	58.5%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	58.5%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	58.5%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	56.9%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	61.0%	45.7%	57.8%	42.0%	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	79.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	77.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	73.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗